Technical analysis of the EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is hovering just above a crucial Fibonacci milestone, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.0833/1.0975 surge at 1.1002. Simultaneously, the pair is bouncing rapidly from a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), extending its rise over the 100 SMA. Furthermore, technical indicators have lost their bearish slopes and have flattened down around their midpoints, indicating reduced selling interest, but not enough to indicate an interim bottom.

EUR/USD sentiment survey

According to the Forecast Poll, bears may keep power in the near term, as 75% of the experts surveyed are pessimistic in the weekly perspective, with an average goal of 1.0944. Bulls, on the other hand, dominate monthly and quarterly forecasts, though only somewhat higher than bears. Buyers account for 37% of the one-month view and 42% of the three-month view. However, the average targets are in the 1.10 price range, indicating that bulls are still skeptical.

According to the Overview chart, the EUR/USD has gone neutral because the moving averages on the three time periods under consideration lack directional power. The near-term one has a little downward slope, with most targets accumulating around 1.0950, while the monthly one is slightly higher.  The pair is expected to remain above the 1.0800 level for the most part, with some analysts predicting a drop below it in the quarter. The 1.1300 area is at the top of the crowded range, so a break through it may assist persuade speculators to take a long-term bullish attitude.

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