The majority of US Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium were consistent with earlier ones, although he emphasised the need to proceed cautiously and that future rate hikes may be necessary if the labour market continues to strengthen.
The next NFP and CPI statistics will be important to confirm or refute the market’s current expectation that the Fed won’t raise rates again.

  • All of the Eurozone PMIs fell short of expectations, with the services sector experiencing a sharp decline in growth.
  • At the Jackson Hole Symposium, President Lagarde didn’t make many signals, although she wasn’t as dovish as the market anticipated.
  • The market anticipates a 25 bps rate increase from the ECB at its September meeting, but actual action will probably depend on the next CPI report.

EIRUSD Technical Analysis: Daily frame

The bottom trendline of a rising wedge pattern has provided support for the EURUSD, which is now challenging it. Lower lows and highs continue the negative trend, which is still in place. In order to discover the convergence with the red 21 moving average, sellers may choose to wait for the price to retrace its steps into the downward trendline. To change the bias from bearish to bullish and aim for higher highs, buyers need the price to cross through the trendline.

Future Events

This week’s events are crucial, as key labour market data, including the NFP, will be presented before the FOMC meeting. The Eurozone CPI data is expected to determine whether the ECB will hike in September or pause. Other reports include US Consumer Confidence and Job Openings, the US ADP report, Eurozone CPI, Jobless Claims, and PCE data. The US NFP and ISM Manufacturing PMI will be concluded on Friday. The Fed is leaning towards a pause in September, so strong data is needed to make the market expect a hike at the upcoming meeting. A strong CPI report will seal the rate hike at the September meeting

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