The PBoC expects the MLF rate to remain unchanged, but China pledges greater policy support, including RRR reductions, OMO, and PBoC rate decreases. This support is expected due to China’s poor economic data and deflation.

Central banks monitor salary statistics for wage-price spiral, with Q/Q readings expected to rise 1.0%, Q2 Y/Y 3.8%.

Australia’s Wage Price Index YoY remains unchanged, while UK unemployment rate remains at 4.0%. Expected earnings ex-bonus and earnings plus bonus increases.

UK Average Earnings ex-Bonus:
US Retail Sales M/M expected to rise 0.4%, Y/Y 1.5%, with the Control Group being a better gauge of consumer spending. The prior release saw a 0.6% increase.

Canada’s CPI Y/Y is predicted to decline to 2.7% from 2.8% in the past, affecting US retail sales. The BoC is concerned with inflation statistics, but the central bank may increase if data outperforms expectations. The Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is 3.4%, Common CPI Y/Y 4.7%, and Median CPI Y/Y 3.7%, with a target range of 1% to 3%.

The RBNZ is expected to maintain the OCR unchanged as the central bank pauses its tightening cycle. Mixed data shows inflation and wage growth, with higher unemployment rates.

UK CPI Y/Y is expected at 6.8%, while Core CPI is at 6.9%. The BoE is expected to hike by 25 bps at the September meeting.

Australian Jobs Report predicts 21.5K jobs added, steady unemployment, and participation rates of 3.5% and 66.8%, respectively.

Australia’s Unemployment Rate
US Jobless Claims are expected to reach 240K initial and 1700K continuing claims.

Japanese CPI Y/Y is expected to decrease to 2.5%, while Core CPI Y/Y will cool to 3.1%. Core-core readings showed 4.2% growth exceeded expectations..

Weekly Market Outlook, August 14–18

  • Tuesday’s reports include PBoC MLF, Australia Wage Price Index, China Industrial Production, UK Jobs Report, German ZEW, US Retail Sales, Canada CPI, and NAHB Housing Market Index.
  • Wednesday’s policy decisions, UK CPI, and FOMC meeting minutes are due.
  • Thursday: US Jobless Claims and the Australia Jobs Report
    Japan’s CPI and UK retail sales on Friday


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