US job vacancies fall, reducing the likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike, causing a prolonged US Dollar drop, and resuming Fed rate speculation.

A longer rate hike was suggested by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s aggressive statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The crucial 104.50 barrier was tested as the US Dollar Index surged. Despite dismal US jobs figures, the likelihood of a rate hike in November fell to 40%.

US Nonfarm Payrolls report releases August jobs data, assessing labour market conditions amidst potential “hard landing” concerns.

Compared to 187K in July, the US economy added 170K jobs in August. 3.5% is the same as last month’s rate. With a 0.3% monthly gain, August’s average hourly earnings are projected to increase annually by 4.4%. Below the revised total of 371,000 jobs added, the private sector in the US added 177,000 jobs. The Q2 GDP growth rate was lowered to 2.1%.

The downturn will be maintained in August, according to TD Securities analysts, who also anticipate a 3.5% UE rate and 0.3% wage growth.

The US August Jobs Report data, released on September 1, may impact the EUR/USD exchange rate, as the nonfarm payrolls figure remains below the 1.0900 mark.
The NFP report and the inflation figures may support Fed Chair Powell’s bullish prediction of another rate increase. While softening labour market conditions could prolong it, the US Dollar may recover towards the two-month low of 1.0766. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is drifting below the midline, and technical indications indicate that the EUR/USD is still vulnerable.

Dhwani identifies three crucial technical levels for trading EUR/USD: immediate support at the 200 DMA’s bearish cross at 1.0816, the last line of defence at 1.0700, and strong resistance at the 21 DMA’s cross at 1.0896. For the 100 DMA key barrier to be retested, Euro buyers need persistent cracking.

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