Investors may already be keeping a careful eye on what is to come in the upcoming week as the countdown to the important US employment data later today (Friday, August 4) gets closer.

The upcoming US inflation statistics, speeches by some Fed officials, and earnings announcements that may cause general market volatility will all be watched closely.

Monday, August 7

CNH: China Forex reserves
EUR: Germany’s industrial production
USD: Speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on August 8

AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence,
NAB business confidence
CNH: China’s trade
EUR: Germany CPI
USD: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speech, US trade

Wednesday, August 9

CNH: China CPI, PPI, money supply, new yuan loans
SPX500_m: Walt Disney earnings
Thursday, August 10

JPY: Japan PPI
USD: July CPI, initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Friday, August 11

GBP: UK industrial production, GDP
USD: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, PPI
The July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released on Thursday, August 10, will probably be a crucial factor in determining whether the Fed raises interest rates one last time in 2023 or not.

Markets are anticipated to exhibit heightened sensitivity to US economic announcements going ahead, including the expected NFP release this afternoon, when taking into account the Federal Reserve’s shift to data dependency.

The market expects the US July CPI

CPI will increase by 3.3% from 3.0% in the preceding month year-over-year (July 2023 vs. July 2022).
Core CPI year-over-year is expected to stay at 4.8%, the same level as in June.
CPI month-over-month (July 2023 vs. June 2023) will stay at 0.2%, the same as the previous month’s 0.2%.
Core CPI will increase by the same amount from June’s 0.2% to 0.2% this month.
The US economy has undoubtedly been affected by inflationary pressures, as seen by the fact that annual inflation slowed to 3% in June, the lowest level since March 2021. Although the CPI is anticipated to increase in July, the core inflation print is anticipated to remain steady, which may encourage hope that the Fed is getting closer to taming the inflation beast. If the CPI report for July shows lower inflation than anticipated, this may reinforce the claim that the Fed has stopped raising interest rates this year.


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