At the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Fed’s policy choices were addressed, and the general agreement called for a break in September to evaluate the delayed effects of their tightening. They are, however, willing to tighten up more if necessary. Positive economic statistics have emerged since the last FOMC meeting, and the labour market is still robust. Recent inflation statistics, however, indicate that Core M/M inflation has only increased by 0.16%. Although the gentle landing scenario seems encouraging, recent US PMIs point to probable discomfort in the future.

Daily Timeframe Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite retraced back towards the broken trendline after bouncing off a crucial support level around 13174, where we also saw the confluence with the red 21 moving average. As the sellers positioned themselves for another drop below the crucial support, the price was denied there. The price has been printing lower lows and lower highs, and the moving averages are crossing downward, so the bias is still negative for the time being.

Future Events

Given that the US NFP and other significant employment market statistics will be released before the next FOMC meeting, this week is crucial. Tomorrow, we’ll start with US consumer confidence and US job openings. We have the US ADP report on Wednesday. On Thursday, we will receive both the US PCE statistics and the US Jobless Claims figures. The US NFP and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday mark the week’s culmination. We will need good data to convince the market to expect an increase at the next meeting, as the Fed is still open to all possibilities but is also moving more towards a pause in September.

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